Tariff Exemption Boost and Tight Supply, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs with Risks Remaining [SMM Tin Futures Review]

April 14, 2025 SHFE Tin Futures Most-Traded Contract Daily Review The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2505) continued its rebound today, opening at 258,600 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 262,280 yuan/mt during the session, and closing at 261,850 yuan/mt, with a daily gain of 3.02%. Open interest saw a slight decline MoM. On the LME, tin also strengthened, reaching a high of $31,975/mt, reflecting the global market's sensitivity to the supply-demand imbalance of tin. On April 11, US Eastern Time, the US announced exemptions for 20 categories of high-tech products (including integrated circuits, display modules, etc.) from "reciprocal tariffs," temporarily alleviating market concerns over escalating US-China trade tensions and boosting sentiment in tech stocks and the metals market. This policy directly benefits downstream consumption sectors of tin (such as semiconductors and consumer electronics), driving the rebound in SHFE tin prices. However, the exemption policy harbors two uncertainties: Semiconductor tariffs remain unresolved: Trump is expected to announce the "final plan" for semiconductor tariffs, and if additional tariffs are imposed, it could suppress end-use demand for tin. Supply side: The global tight supply of tin ore has not fundamentally changed. The resumption of production at the Bisie mine in the DRC has only temporarily eased pressure. Demand side: Short-term restocking at low levels supports prices, but medium and long-term risks are emerging. The potential impact of US tariff policies on China's exports of home appliances and consumer electronics remains. In the short term, sentiment recovery and restocking demand driven by tariff exemptions may support the continuation of SHFE tin's rebound, but the upside is limited by high inventory and potential negative impacts from semiconductor tariffs.